Written by Ethan (@TheBostonBuzzer)
Coming off a win on Thursday Night Football in which the Patriots did not play their best ball, now feels like the perfect time to dig a bit deeper into the question lingering in the back of everyone’s mind: Are the Patriots true Super Bowl contenders this year?
I know some may think I’m jumping the shark, but asking this question is really not as crazy as you may believe. With their win over the Jets, the Patriots are now sitting on the most wins in the entire NFL and are currently the #1 seed in the AFC.
Now, this is impressive, but naturally some may wonder if what they are doing is sustainable. For those people, it is your lucky day, because in this piece we are going to answer this question and deliver a verdict on whether or not the Patriots have a real chance to hoist the Lombardi Trophy in February. So, with that being said, let’s jump right into it.
The Easy Schedule Concern
To begin answering this question, I think it is necessary to address the “easy schedule” argument that has been floating around all over the internet and is being used to diminish the Patriots play up to this point. Yes, the schedule has been favorable, but we’ve known it was going to be this way since the moment it was released in the Spring. After all, the team was a disaster last year under Jerod Mayo, finished last in the division, and earned a last-place schedule as a result.
Fans of other teams may point to wins over the Dolphins, Panthers, Saints, Titans, Browns, and Jets and chalk up the Patriots’ record to weak opponents. But what would their argument be for the wins over the Bills and the Buccaneers? Did we get lucky in both of those games? I don’t think so.
The Patriots stepped up to both challenges that they have faced so far, delivering gutsy wins against both the Bills and Buccaneers in very difficult away environments.These are not wins that fraudulent football teams typically get. Neither of these games were flukes and I don’t think it is even crazy to say that the Pats didn’t even play their best in them.
Even in many of the matchups against lesser teams, the Patriots have taken care of business in dominating fashion. They have won 4 of their 11 games by two possessions or more and boast a point differential of +86, which puts them in the top five of this category.
So, yes the Patriots have an easy schedule. But they have done everything possible with it to prove themselves as a legit contender. They don’t get to choose who they are lining up against. All they can do is go out there and play the game of football to their best ability, which they have done at a pretty high level so far. Outside of the first three weeks where teams are still figuring out their identities, there is not a single blemish on the Patriots record that can be used to point to them being a fraudulent team. So for anyone that is clinging to the“easy schedule” excuse, put your ego aside and admit that this is a seriously good football team that isn’t going away any time soon.
Coaching and Culture
Looking back at the past decade, there are a few things that every Super Bowl winning team has had in common; The first of these things being a coaching staff amongst the best in the league and/or an established culture that breeds winning at a high level. In the Patriots case, they have both.
There is no question that Mike Vrabel is within the top tier of coaches in the NFL. Throughout his career, he has elevated a Titans team quarterbacked by Ryan Tannehill to the #1 seed in the AFC and is on the verge of tripling this Patriots team’s win total in his first year as New England’s head coach. I don’t think that the impact he has had within this building can be overstated. Vrabel has completely flipped the Patriots’ identity, transforming the group from one that was smiling and laughing after losses just a year ago to one that is dialed in each and every week, making personal sacrifices in order to ensure team success. The team has taken after him, embodying his tough, gritty personality and is developing into a squad that nobody is going to want to see later in the year.
It doesn’t stop there though. Taking a glance at the rest of the staff, there are incredible coaches scattered all over the place. On the offensive side of the ball alone you have a 6-time Super Bowl winning offensive coordinator in Josh Mcdaniels, an up and coming offensive mind in Thomas Brown, and a widely respected offensive line coach in Doug Marrone. Each of these people bring their own personalities and experience to the table, creating a melting pot of football knowledge that is clearly having a pronounced effect on the Patriots’ play this season. These guys know what it takes to play winning football and they are drilling the necessary mindset and techniques into the guys head’s each and every day on the practice field.
So do the Patriots have the coaching and culture that it takes to win a Super Bowl? I think it is safe to say they do. With Mike Vrabel setting the mark for success and Josh McDaniels heading the offensive side of the ball, the Patriots are in good hands in this department.
The Quarterback
Outside of the two C’s (coaching/culture), the other thing that is required in order to win a Super Bowl within the modern NFL is an elite quarterback. And while some may have questions about whether Drake Maye will be able to perform in a playoff environment, I don’t think anybody can dispute the fact that he is currently playing like a future face of the league. Through 11 games this season, Maye has performed at an MVP level and there is no sign of him slowing down.
Over the last ten years, there are six different QB’s that have been able to push their team over the top and hoist the Lombardi Trophy: These guys being Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Matthew Stafford, Tom Brady, Nick Foles, and Peyton Manning. To this point, I think it is fair to claim that Drake is playing at the same level that these guys did during their Super Bowl seasons.
The numbers speak for themselves. He currently ranks top 5 in the league in passing yards, TD’s, YPA, QBR, Passer Rating, and EPA. Even more impressive he is the first QB in NFL history that has tallied 2,500+ passing yards, 250+ rushing yards, 20+ TD passes, 70.0+ completion percentage, and a .800 winning percentage over the span of 11 starts. You can’t argue with the stats.
So do the Patriots have the quarterback play to propel them to a Super Bowl? I’d say that they do. The only point that can be made against Drake Maye is whether or not he will be able to play to his best ability when everything is on the line, which is a purely hypothetical argument. It’s only fair that he is judged by the tape he has put out there on the field so far, which has been elite.
The Defense
The final ingredient for any true contender in January and February is a defense that is capable of getting big stops when the game comes down to it. Defense is something that can carry over into the later months of the season when it starts to get cold and things start to matter more. As Patriots fans know best from their 20-year run of dominance, a good defense is typically a staple of any Super Bowl winning team.
When it comes to the 2025 Patriots, it is hard to truly get a read on how good the defense is. Many of the advanced statistics aren’t the friendliest towards them. But as anyone who has watched the games has seen, much of their struggles have come on the opposing team’s first (scripted) drive of the game. It seems like they give up a touchdown to start every week, without fail. Many have even been starting to suggest that they might do it on purpose.
However, despite these early game struggles, they have shown that they have the ability to be an extremely solid defense at times. According to Fox Sports, they rank 8th in total defense, allowing an average of 300 yards per game to opposing offenses. Adding to this, they are by far and away the best rushing defense in the league, holding teams to the low average of 84.7 rushing yards per game and having only allowed 4 TD’s on the ground all season.
Where things become a little bit suspect is the passing defense, which ranks 18th in the NFL. Teams have been able to throw the ball successfully against the Patriots, but I believe a large part of this ranking again comes from the first drive of ballgames. When watching the games, it’s not like opposing quarterbacks are throwing the ball all over the yard. There are just certain drives where things look a bit shaky. But, I still think there is reason for optimism in this department considering that the Patriots have one of the best cornerback tris in the league. Christian Gonzalez is among the best defensive backs in the NFL, Carlton Davis is a rock solid counterpart, and Marcus Jones is a dynamic playmaker in the nickel position.
So do the Patriots have a defense that they can win a Super Bowl with? Again, I would say yes. Their defense certainly isn’t their strength, but I believe it is good enough to get them over the top. The rushing defense will be huge in cold playoff games, keeping teams behind the chains and the passing defense will have its moments with players like Gonzalez, Davis, and Jones making a few big plays. The defensive line is strong enough to put pressure on quarterbacks and force them to make quick decisions. All together, they are a solid unit that has the ability to supplement the offense and come up with big stops when it matters most.
The Decision
Now, after examining the team as a whole and looking at what is required to be considered a true contender, there is only one question that remains. Do the Patriots have the ability to win the Super Bowl this season?
After careful consideration, I have come to the conclusion that the answer is yes.
This team has what it takes to come through in February and ultimately end the year hoisting the treasured Lombardi Trophy. They have the coaching staff, they have the culture, they have the quarterback, and they have the defense. The only thing left to weigh is whether or not they will execute when the lights are shining their brightest.
People will question this take , and that’s fine. Doubt is fuel. And as the Patriots continue to rack up wins and put a quality product on the field week after week, their case as contenders will only grow stronger. Eventually, it will become unquestionable that this team is in the Super Bowl conversation.
But, while we wait for the rest of the league to catch up, I’ll leave Patriots fans with this:
Every great run starts before the world believes in it. So ask yourself, not as a pessimist, not as a skeptic, but as a true fan that is watching something real take shape.
Why not us?
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